<section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 10px 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 5px 0px 20px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; min-width: 10%; vertical-align: top; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; min-width: 10%; vertical-align: top; border-width: 2px; border-radius: 0px; border-style: dashed; 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margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: left; text-indent: 32px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 18px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0.544px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">136『需求放大图</strong></strong><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">』</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p style="white-space: normal;"><br/></p><p></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; 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padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.8; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-bottom: 16px; text-indent: 35px;"><span style="font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;各位朋友大家好。欢迎来到Tonii老师精益讲堂。接下来Tonii老师将带领大家进入每天5分钟精益伴你行系列课程。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-bottom: 16px; text-indent: 35px;"><span style="font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;今天我们学习的是<strong>需求放大图</strong>。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">下边这个图示是实际需求与订货的差异。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br/></span><font color="#f0b079"><span style="font-size: 14px; letter-spacing: 1.8px;"><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.585956416464891" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/x7XibiaRviayZgx0HXqmjtVIVCFic6h75lcSAiarTApxUibF7icoicdhaficabIN0scibAVAGxfdHBKJatKeV2HKF8mPN9gg/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1239" _width="677px" src="//cdn-2c-02.industics.com/public/upload/image/20210415/1618474669280617.png" crossorigin="anonymous" alt="图片" data-fail="0" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; float: left; width: 313px; height: 212px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important;" width="313" height="212" border="0" vspace="0" title="图片"/></span></font><span style="color: black; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 2px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br/></span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: black; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 2px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">在供应链当中有一个非常有名的效应，叫做需求放大效应，又俗称牛鞭效应。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: black; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 2px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">也就是说，如果这个供应链有很多的节点，那么每一个节点做的需求预测还有下的订单都是根据下级企业的需求信息进行决策的。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: black; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 2px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">在这个过程当中不真实的需求就会逆供应链而上，产生逐级放大的现象，等到源头的供应商时，</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: black; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 2px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">底下的一点点波动已经是非常大的波动了。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: black; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 2px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">这就是需求放大效应，也叫做牛鞭效应。</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: black; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 2px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">需求放大的效应在这个图示当中</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: black; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 2px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">展示出来就是需求放大图。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; color: black; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 2px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">在这里，Tonii老师想问一下在座的各位，你们有没有参加过精益供应链的培训，如果参加培训，90%会做一个非常有名的游戏——啤酒游戏。在这个游戏当中非常好的诠释了什么是牛鞭效应。在整个供应链当中，有最终的客户、有分销商、有零售商还有制造商等等，一共有好几个环节。客户的需求只是在一定范围内的小幅波动，但是一级一级传达到最终的原材料供应商的时候，需求已经波动的非常大了。这个就是牛鞭效应的体现，也是需求放大图的一个体现。如果在座的各位做过这个游戏，那么你很容易理解Tonii老师讲的事情，如果没有做过，那么我真的希望在下次供应链培训的时候，跟大家一起玩一玩这个非常有趣的游戏。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">前一段时间，Tonii老师刚刚在我们的一个客户里面做过这个游戏，当时两个队伍做的不亦乐乎，而不管队伍如何，最终总是体现了牛鞭效应。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">那么什么是需求放大图，它又是怎么产生的呢？</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">下边4个图是从客户的订货，到临近客户的零售商订货，然后再到稍微远离客户的代理商的订货，最后到供应商的订货。越到下游波动越趋于平缓，越到上游波动越大。那么到底是哪些原因导致了这种需求放大呢？比如说多重需求的预测、提前期、订货批量决策、供应链结构和价格波动等。</span><img class="rich_pages" data-ratio="0.682" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_png/x7XibiaRviayZgx0HXqmjtVIVCFic6h75lcSDtRLTaOKxhqqOL7OcicVyH3RM8MdfHGrlvNIpkmCLEdrdhC0Ngdianow/640?wx_fmt=png" data-type="png" data-w="1000" _width="677px" src="//cdn-2c-02.industics.com/public/upload/image/20210415/1618474670962984.png" crossorigin="anonymous" alt="图片" data-fail="0" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; float: left; width: 324px; height: 238px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important;" width="324" height="238" border="0" vspace="0" title="图片"/><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br/></span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">下面着重讲一下什么是多重需求预测，即每一个供应链环节都会根据自己的客户，而不是根据最终的客户去做需求，所以最终的客户会给临近的一级供应商一个需求的预测量，一级供应商为了保证自己交货的稳定，在向自己的供应商发放需求预测的时候就会加大，无论是量的加大还是幅度的加大，这样一层一层的往上游传导，当传导到几层供应商之后，需求的波动就变得非常大了，所以说这是第一个最主要的原因——多重需求预测。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">第二个是提前期，在啤酒游戏当中，每一个环节提前期都是两周，因为有两周的提前期，为了确保当前的交货，每一个客户都必须备大量的安全库存来保护自己，因此必定会放大需求量。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">还有供应链结构的原因，供应链结构越长，往往放大的效应越大，另外一个，如果整个供应链的信息更加透明一些，放大效应可能会小一些，如果信息越不透明，那么需求放大的效应会越大。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">需求放大效应对远离客户的供应商来讲，简直是灾难性的东西，尤其是到最终的供销商的计划量的时候，波动已经非常大了。而大波动对生产、对交付、对物流都是一种考验，所以说要尽量的减弱需求放大效应。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">那么有哪些方法呢？</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">第一个就是实现信息共享，信息共享的越彻底越透明，牛鞭效应的这种幅度会越小。如果最终的供应商都能够参照最终客户的消费量，那么肯定不会被代理商所迷惑。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">第二个就是改善操作的作业。这要求内部的提前期要越来越短，提前期越短操作的灵活度越大，对需求变动的响应能力就越强，产生牛鞭效应的可能性也越小。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">第三个就是稳定价格，在采购当中，价格也是导致牛鞭效应非常重要的一个因素。如果整个供应链价格是稳定的，那么牛鞭效应在一定程度上也会被控制。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; clear: both; min-height: 1em; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-indent: 43px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; font-size: 17px; color: black; letter-spacing: 2px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">第四个是和整个供应链建成战略合作伙伴，我们经常讲，在精益的世界里面客户是上帝，供应商是神，我们有义务也有这个需求，和客户还有供应商建立战略合作伙伴关系，建立了战略合作伙伴，从某种角度上讲就可以把供应链看成一个工厂，一个实体。那么在这种情况下无论是需求、生态还是交货都会有很大的提升。这些因素叠加起来会有效的减弱需求放大效应，从而减少整个供应链的浪费。</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-bottom: 16px; text-indent: 35px;"><span style="font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br/></span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-bottom: 16px; text-indent: 35px;"><span style="font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;今天的课程就到这里，感谢大家！</span></p><p style="color: rgb(240, 176, 121); letter-spacing: 1.8px; margin-bottom: 16px; text-indent: 35px;"><br/></p></section></section></section></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; line-height: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">想听Tonii老师的课程？</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; 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