<section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 10px 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 5px 0px 20px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; min-width: 10%; vertical-align: top; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; min-width: 10%; vertical-align: top; border-width: 2px; border-radius: 0px; border-style: dashed; 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margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: left; text-indent: 32px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 18px;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">047<strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0.544px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">『DMD</strong></strong><strong style="font-size: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">』</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; 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overflow: hidden; background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0); border-width: 5px; border-radius: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(255, 202, 0); box-shadow: rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 1px 0px inset; line-height: 0; letter-spacing: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: 677px; vertical-align: top; border-color: rgb(255, 211, 171) rgb(255, 202, 0) rgb(255, 202, 0); border-width: 1px; border-radius: 0px; border-style: none solid solid; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin: 20px 0px 13px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(240, 176, 121); line-height: 1.8; letter-spacing: 1.8px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-bottom: 16px; text-indent: 35px;"><a name="_Hlk59355370"></a><span style="font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">各位朋友大家好。欢迎来到Tonii老师精益讲堂。接下来Tonii老师将带领大家进入每天5分钟精益伴你行系列课程。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px; text-indent: 35px;"><span style="font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">今天我们学习的是<b>DMD</b>。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><strong><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;思源黑体 CN Regular&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">DMD</span></strong><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;思源黑体 CN Regular&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">是英文Demand的缩写，中文名称为需求量，是指在一段时期内，客户期望并能够购买产品的数量。在整个平准化系统当中，Demand是一个非常基础性的概念，如果连需求量都弄不清楚，那么后边就无从谈起。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;思源黑体 CN Regular&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">讲到需求量有三点，Tonii老师想要提前跟大家说一下。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">1.<span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 9px; line-height: normal; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">Demand</span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">有两种表述方式， ADU(average daily usage日平均需求)和AWU （average week usage周平均需求）。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">2.<span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 9px; line-height: normal; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">平时Tonii老师给大家布置练习题的时候会有Demand相关的一些作业题或者是算术题，大家都已知了Demand，其实当你知道了这个数字往往就简单了，如何得到这数字才是最关键的。Tonii老师在这里介绍2.5种方法来得到这个数据。第1种方法叫做历史数据法，也就是根据过去半年、一年、两年甚至三年的数据，推断出将来一段时间的需求。第2种叫做预测法，即立足于当前，对未来一段时间去做一个预测。但是更多的情形，是既用历史数据法，又用预测法这两种方法结合起来去做需求量的分析，所以说这是第2.5种方法。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">3.<span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 9px; line-height: normal; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">由于需求量是一个预测量，还没有发生，因此它并非百分百的准确，所以需要定期的更新，这样才能让需求量能跟随住最新的变化趋势。通常来讲，有些企业是一个月更新一次需求量的预测，有些企业是每一周都更新。这个是必要的。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;思源黑体 CN Regular&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">那么在预测需求量的时候，有一些基本的工作需要做。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;思源黑体 CN Regular&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">首先要有销售预测，也就是根据市场，销售的判断，接下来一段时间大约是要卖出多少？需求量是多大？（不求百分百准，因为没有任何一种预测是百分百准的）。还有产能数据、客户情况，这些也都是在做需求量预测的时候需要有的一些基本条件，最后是产销存和精益转换。上一次课Tonii老师已经讲过了，在丹纳赫体系当中一个的精益变革过程应该有5个步骤，这5个步骤都做完称之为基本的精益转换完成，Demand只有在这种精益基本转换做完了之后能发挥更大作用。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;思源黑体 CN Regular&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">那么通常都会看哪些客户情况？</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">1.<span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 9px; line-height: normal; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">平均需求，平均一个月或者平均一周需求多少件，这是最基本的。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">2.<span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 9px; line-height: normal; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">变异，即波动情况。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">3.<span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 9px; line-height: normal; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">季节性影响。对某些行业来讲，比如说服装行业、餐饮行业，季节性影响非常的大。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">4.<span style="font-variant-numeric: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-stretch: normal; font-size: 9px; line-height: normal; font-family: &quot;Times New Roman&quot;;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </span></span><span style="letter-spacing: 1.8px; font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">观察趋势，会有专门的六西格玛的工具去看趋势，比如持续向上，持续向下，还是保持大致的平稳。这些信息对于预测需求量都是非常关键的。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="color: black; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 1.8px;">接下来Tonii老师给大家讲一个在平准化这个体系当中应用最多的一个指标，需求的变异系数C.V。</span><br/></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;思源黑体 CN Regular&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">C.V=</span><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;思源黑体 CN Regular&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">（标准偏差SD</span><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">➗</span><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;思源黑体 CN Regular&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">平均值MN）</span><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;Segoe UI Emoji&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">✖</span><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;思源黑体 CN Regular&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">100%</span><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;思源黑体 CN Regular&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;思源黑体 CN Regular&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">大家如果有六西格玛的基础，就会知道六西格玛有两个非常基础的概念，一个是平均值，另外一个就是标准偏差SD。变异系数越小意味着需求或者是数值的趋势越平稳，越大说明波动越大，这是从六西格玛的角度上讲的。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;思源黑体 CN Regular&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">那么为什么要看变异系数？根据Tonii老师过去的一些工作经验，C.V在什么区间里面，应该用什么方式去做平准化，用什么方式去做物料补给，这些都有一个大致的经验标准。比如说，如果ADU的C.V值，也就是变异系数小于1.0的时候，意味着系统相对比较平稳，在这种情形下通常用拉动系统去进行物料补给；如果ADU的C.V值，也就是变异系数大于1.5的时候，说明这个系统的抖动比较大那么通常就是用推动系统；变异系数C.V值在1.0和1.5之间就要多维度去看，有可能用拉动，有可能用推动，有可能是两个系统都用。更多维度，包括对客户要求，对生产的整个能力的信心指数，最近的一些国际形势等等,综合来看。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom:16px;text-indent:35px"><span style="font-size:17px;font-family:&#39;思源黑体 CN Regular&#39;,sans-serif;color:black">所以说变异系数对指导系统用什么方式去补给是有作用的。当然了，千万不要形而上学，Tonii老师反复讲过，精益的很多理念都是根据经验来的。经验意味着过去是存在的，是有用的，但是跟将来比有可能会出现偏差或者是变异。所以大家一定要记住，要把普遍的理论或者经验要跟自己的情形结合起来，不能形而上学，形而上学是一定要失败的。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px; text-indent: 35px;"><span style="font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;"><br/></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px; text-indent: 35px;"><span style="font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;">今天的课程就到这里，感谢大家！</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px; text-indent: 35px;"><span style="font-size: 17px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: black;"><br/></span></p></section></section></section></section><p></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; line-height: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; 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