<p><br/></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 10px 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 5px 0px 20px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; min-width: 10%; vertical-align: top; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; min-width: 10%; vertical-align: top; border-width: 2px; border-radius: 0px; 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text-align: justify; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; text-align: left; text-indent: 32px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 18px;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">059<strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0.544px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">『风险分析</strong></strong><strong style="font-size: 18px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">』</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; 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padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; width: auto; flex: 0 0 auto; box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px; line-height: 0; letter-spacing: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: 10px; height: 30px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; border-width: 0px; box-shadow: rgb(0, 0, 0) 0px 0px 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin: 10px 0px 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-size: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: 10px; height: 10px; vertical-align: top; overflow: hidden; background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0); border-width: 5px; border-radius: 0px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(255, 202, 0); box-shadow: rgb(255, 255, 255) 1px 1px 0px inset; line-height: 0; letter-spacing: 0px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: 677px; vertical-align: top; border-color: rgb(255, 211, 171) rgb(255, 202, 0) rgb(255, 202, 0); border-width: 1px; border-radius: 0px; border-style: none solid solid; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin: 20px 0px 13px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(240, 176, 121); line-height: 1.8; letter-spacing: 1.8px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-bottom: 16px; text-indent: 35px;"><a name="_Hlk59355370"></a><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;各位朋友大家好。欢迎来到Tonii老师精益讲堂。接下来Tonii老师将带领大家进入每天5分钟精益伴你行系列课程。</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px; text-indent: 35px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">&nbsp;今天我们学习的是<strong>风险分析</strong>。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><strong style=";padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important">风险分析是一种基于科学的、按照结构化方法进行的开放透明的评估过程，包括风险评估、风险管理和风险交流等等</strong>。在上一次课程漏斗改善当中，我们提到了风险分析，在漏斗改善当中有很多机会点，但是这些机会点并不意味着都要去做。那么如何让这些机会点不断的升级，不断的提升它的优先级呢？风险分析就是判断的重要依据之一。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><br style=";padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">通常来讲有<span style="font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">7</span>种风险分析的方法，比如蒙特卡洛模拟分析法，风险概论评估法，专家调查法等等。在做具体的<span style="font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">KAIZEN</span>的过程当中，通常选取一到两种方法进行风险评估就可以了，用的多反而容易乱。那么如何去选这些方法，大家可以去深入研究。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><br style=";padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">通常来讲，如果要研究事物的维度非常多，那么蒙特卡洛是一种非常好的方法。如果公司或领域内有非常多的有能力、公信力比较高的专家，可以选择简单粗暴的专家调查法，直接让专家来进行风险分析，风险评估。当然，应用的最多的还是风险综合评价法，所以接下来<span style="font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">Tonii</span>老师就一起跟大家看一看，如何应用风险综合评价法。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><br style=";padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">风险综合评价法通常有<span style="font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">5</span>个步骤。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><br style=";padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">第<span style="font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">1</span>个步骤是建立风险调查表；然后判断风险的权重，这个权重一定是团队一起决定的；接下来是判断每一个机会点的风险发生的概率；还有一个就是计算每一个风险因素的等级，也就是说一旦一个问题出现了，那么风险造成的破坏因素或者是破坏能力的等级大小。最后还要研究相应的对应方案，也就是说如果整个风险评估下来，风险程度很高，要想办法解决它，降低它的风险程度。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><br style=";padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">下图是<span style="font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">Tonii</span>老师和以前丹纳赫的同事们一起做过的一个风险评估，这里只有两个维度，一个是发生的概率，一是它影响的严重程度。在这两个维度之后，有一列叫做<span style="font-size: 16px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">exposure</span>，即风险等级，这个值越高，意味着这一项的风险越大，值越低，意味着风险越低。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><br/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><img data-ratio="0.7908979089790897" data-s="300,640" data-src="https://mmbiz.qpic.cn/mmbiz_jpg/x7XibiaRviayZgQRfGfrhAs4CIibr7gMpYiaf9V8TVruKDzmVg3QZiaPuMlVXrT7W3B05Yyfs6O5a21I68Razibv65Shw/640?wx_fmt=jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="813" _width="677px" src="//cdn-2c-02.industics.com/public/upload/image/20210414/1618383661889394.jpeg" crossorigin="anonymous" alt="图片" data-fail="0" style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; height: 180px; width: 298px; box-sizing: border-box !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important;" width="298" height="180"/><br style=";padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 35px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><br/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">通常来讲，在做风险分析之后，对于风险值高的需要谨慎处理，风险值低的大胆去做。另外一个，随着时间的流逝，我们对任何一个事物或行动的判断可能会改变，因为时过境迁，技术不一样，评判的思路不一样，自己的能力也不一样了，这个值可能会改变，所以需要经常定期的去回顾风险分析和上次所讲的要定期进行漏斗改善回顾是一个道理，每一次做漏斗改善，都要进行风险分析。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><br style=";padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">最后一个，如果发现某一个行动的价值非常高，但是风险程度又非常大 ，在这种情况下，通常是保留这个项目，然后尽可能的通过一些方法和资源去降低风险。如果以现有能力</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px;margin-bottom: 0px;padding: 0px;max-width: 100%;clear: both;min-height: 1em;font-family: -apple-system-font, BlinkMacSystemFont, &#39;Helvetica Neue&#39;, &#39;PingFang SC&#39;, &#39;Hiragino Sans GB&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei UI&#39;, &#39;Microsoft YaHei&#39;, Arial, sans-serif;letter-spacing: 1.8px;white-space: normal;background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);font-size: medium;text-indent: 43px;box-sizing: border-box !important;overflow-wrap: break-word !important"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><br/></span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px; text-indent: 35px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;">今天的课程就到这里，感谢大家！</span></p><p style="margin-bottom: 16px; text-indent: 35px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;, sans-serif; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 16px;"><br/></span></p></section></section></section></section><p></p><p style="white-space: normal;"><br/></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; 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