<section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 10px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0px 5px 0px 20px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; min-width: 10%; vertical-align: top; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; min-width: 10%; vertical-align: top; border-width: 2px; border-radius: 0px; border-style: dashed; border-color: rgb(29, 29, 29) rgb(29, 29, 29) rgb(182, 182, 182) rgb(182, 182, 182); 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max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">199<strong style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0.544px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">『</strong>需求特征』</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); text-align: justify; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0px; 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text-align: center; font-size: 18px; color: rgb(255, 202, 0); letter-spacing: 3px; line-height: 1; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(255, 192, 0);"><strong style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">文字专栏</strong></span></p></section></section><section style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; vertical-align: bottom; width: auto; flex: 1 0 1px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; align-items: center; display: flex; transform: rotateY(180deg); overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0px; 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overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"/></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-size: 17px; text-align: justify; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: 677px; vertical-align: top; border-color: rgb(255, 211, 171) rgb(255, 202, 0) rgb(255, 202, 0); border-width: 1px; border-radius: 0px; border-style: none solid solid; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin: 20px 0px 13px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0px 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(240, 176, 121); line-height: 1.8; letter-spacing: 1.8px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">各位朋友大家好，欢迎来到</span>Tonii老师精益讲堂，接下来Tonii老师将带领大家进入，每天5分钟，精益伴你行系列课程。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 76px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">今天我们要学习的是</span><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">需求特征</span></strong><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">。</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">在这节课中，我们使用的术语是</span>“需求”而不是“销售”。两者的区别是，销售一般指实际卖掉的东西，而需求则是对某产品的需要。有时候需求并不能得到满足，所以销售量可能小于需求量。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">在讨论预测原则和方法之前，最好先了解一下需求的特征，它将影响预测及所使用的具体方法。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">需求模型</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">如果需求的历史数据以时间刻度进行绘制，可能会是任意形状，也可能是连续的曲线。曲线是时间序列的大体形状，虽然一些单个的数据点不能够恰好落在图形上，但其趋向于分布在曲线周围。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">图</span>1<span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">是一个假设的历史需求曲线，该曲线表明每个时期的实际需求都不相同。造成这一现象的原因有</span>4个:趋势、季节性、随机变化和周期。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.7190265486725663" data-s="300,640" src="https://x.industics.com/public/upload/image/20210305/1614925594898076.jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="452" style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; height: auto !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">图</span>1&nbsp;<span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">时间需求曲线</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: left; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;"><strong style="padding: 0px;">趋势。</strong>图</span>1<span style="padding: 0px;">表明需求逐年稳定增加，图形显现了一个线性趋势。但还有其他形状，如几何增长或指数增长。趋势可能是水平的，随着时间没有变化，也可能上升或下降。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: left; text-indent: 43px;"><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">季节性</span></strong><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">。图</span>1<span style="padding: 0px;">的需求曲线说明每年的需求在不同时段都有变化。这一变化可能是天气、假日或季节性发生的事件引起的。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: left; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">季节性通常认为每年发生，但也可能每周甚至每天发生。餐馆的需求在一天的任意时段都不同，而超市的销售量则是一周中的每一天都不同。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: left; text-indent: 43px;"><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">随机变化</span></strong><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">。随机变化发生在有很多因素影响需求的某些时期，并且这些因素的发生是随机的。变化可能很小，此时实际需求离曲线很近</span>;变化也可能很大，此时实际需求的点严重分散。变化曲线通常可以测量。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: left; text-indent: 43px;"><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">周期</span></strong><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">。在几年甚至十几年的时间内，经济的波浪式上升或下降都会影响需求。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: left; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;"><br style="padding: 0px;"/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">静态需求和动态需求</span></strong><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">&nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp; &nbsp;一些产品或服务的需求曲线形状会随着时间变化，而另外一些则不变。保持大致相同形状的需求叫做</span><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">静态需求</span></strong><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">(stable)，相反的则是</span><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">动态需求</span></strong><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">(dynamic) .动态变化可能影响<span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">实际需求的趋势、季节性或随机性。需求越稳定预测越简单。图</span>2<span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">是静态需求和动态需求的示意图，注意静态曲线和动态曲线的平均需求是相同的。通常预测的是平均需求。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.49507389162561577" data-s="300,640" src="https://x.industics.com/public/upload/image/20210305/1614925595159174.jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="406" style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; height: auto !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">静态需求与动态需求</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">独立需求和相关需求</span></strong><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">当某产品或服务的需求与其他产品或服务的需求无关时，就是独立需求</span>;而相关需求是指产品或服务的需求来自对另一种产品或服务的需求。相关需求物品不需要预测，而是从独立需求物品中计算出来。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">只有独立需求物品需要预测。它们通常是最终产品或制成品，但也应该包含同一公司向其他车间提供的备件或供应物品</span>(公司内转移)。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">最后今天的结尾</span>Tonii老师还是抛出一个小问题，希望大家可以根据今天的学习内容进行思考，并欢迎留言与Tonii老师进行深入交流。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">每日一问：哪些原因会造成每个时期的需求不同？</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">今天我们就讲到这里，希望大家在企业运营中精益求精，我们下次再见！</span></p></section></section></section></section><p></p><p></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; line-height: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">想听Tonii老师的课程？</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">想和慧工云小学妹有更多互动？</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">就添加慧工云小学妹微信吧！</span></p></section><p></p><p></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 10px 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; width: 101.547px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="1" data-type="gif" data-w="300" width="100%" src="https://x.industics.com/public/upload/image/20210305/1614925601246929.gif" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(238, 237, 235); border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(238, 237, 235); background-size: 22px; background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat; vertical-align: middle; height: auto !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important; width: 101px !important;"/></section></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 14px; text-align: center; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">让慧工云小学妹为您带来更多咨讯</span></p></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; 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