201-预测方法

2021年04月20日 14:04

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padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">各位朋友大家好,欢迎来到</span>Tonii老师精益讲堂,接下来Tonii老师将带领大家进入,每天5分钟,精益伴你行系列课程。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 76px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">今天我们要学习的是</span><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">预测方法</span></strong><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">。</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 等线; font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">预测方法有很多种,一般可以归为以下几类:定性预测法、定量预测法、外部预测法和内部预测法。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: bold;">定性预测法</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">是基于判断、直觉和经验判断的方法,本质上来说是主观的。这种方法常用于预测一般的业务趋势和大的产品族的长期潜在需求。这样﹐定性预测主要用于高层管理。鉴于生产和库存预测通常关注的是对某些最终产品的需求,因此定性预测方法很少适用。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">预测新产品的需求时,预测没有历史数据作依据。在这种情况下,可能用到</span><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">市场调查</span></strong><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;">(market research)法和</span><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">历史类推</span></strong><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;">(historical analogy)法。市场调查是一种系统的、正式的、有意识的测试过程以确定顾客的观点或意向。历史类推法基于对类似产品引入和成长的对比分析上,以期新产品亦是如此。另外一种方法是</span><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">产品试销</span></strong><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;">(test-market)法。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">还有一些其他的定性预测方法。其中之一是</span><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">德尔菲法</span></strong><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;">(Delphi method) ,即通过一组专家对可能发生的情况给出他们的意见。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: bold;">定量预测法</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">是建立在历史或数据基础上的预测,不管这些数据是来在机构内部,还是机构外部。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: bold;">外部预测法</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">是基于与公司产品需求有关的外部指标而进行的预测。这类外部指标如房屋开工率、出生率及可支配收入率。外部数据法的理论根据是对产品族的需求直接与其他领域的活动成比例或相关。相关性的例子如</span>:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">砖的销售与房屋开工率成正比。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">汽车轮胎的销售与汽油的消费成正比。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-size: 17px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">房屋动工率和汽油消费称为</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">经济指标</span>(economic indicators),它们可以表明一定时期内的主要经济状况。<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">由于这些指标往往早于它们所提示的某些情况的发生,因此常被称作是</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">先导指标</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">(</span>leading&nbsp;indicators)。举例来说,房屋的开工(常常由申请房屋建造许可所表示)会引起房屋建筑材料(包括屋面材料、电工材料等)的要求。所以房屋开工率就是许多建筑材料需求很好的先导指标。其他一些常用的经济指标有:建筑合同发放量、汽车产量、农场收入、钢铁产量,以及国民总收入等。这类数据由不同的政府部门、财经期刊、贸易协会和银行等编撰发布。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">问题是找到与需求相关的指标,或者是该指标能很好的引导需求的指标,也就是在需求发生之前出现的指标。例如,一个时期所授予的建筑合同能预示下一时期建筑材料的销售量。如果找不到这样一个有指示性的指标,也可以用政府或某个机构预测的非指示性指标。在某种意义上说,就是基于预测的预测。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">外部预测法在预测产品总需求或产品族的需求上非常有用。因此,该方法最常用于商业和生产计划,而很少用于单个最终产品的预测。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-weight: bold;">内部预测法</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">应用历史数据进行预测。这些数据通常在公司保有记录,随时可用。内部预测法建立在“过去发生的将来也会发生”这个前提上,这个假设好比看着后视镜开车。尽管这个比喻显然只是部分正确,但如果没有其他预测方法,对于未来最好的向导也就是过去曾经发生的事情。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">内部预测法经常用作主生产计划的输入信息。在主生产计划中,对计划期内的最终产品进行预测时,常常要用到内部预测法。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;"><br style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">最后今天的结尾</span>Tonii老师还是抛出一个小问题,希望大家可以根据今天的学习内容进行思考,并欢迎留言与Tonii老师进行深入交流。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">每日一问:举例说明什么情况下用定性预测法最佳?</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; letter-spacing: 1.8px; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-size: 17px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">今天我们就讲到这里,希望大家在企业运营中精益求精,我们下次再见!</span></p></section></section></section></section><p></p><p></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(240, 176, 121); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); letter-spacing: 0.544px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; text-align: center; line-height: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">想听Tonii老师的课程?</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">想和慧工云小学妹有更多互动?</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">就添加慧工云小学妹微信吧!</span></p></section><p></p><p></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 10px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(240, 176, 121); font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; 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