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max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0px 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; line-height: 1.8; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(240, 176, 121); text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">各位朋友大家好，欢迎来到</span>Tonii老师精益讲堂，接下来Tonii老师将带领大家进入，每天5分钟，精益伴你行系列课程。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(240, 176, 121); text-indent: 76px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(240, 176, 121); text-indent: 43px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">今天我们要学习的是</span><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">移动平均预测</span></strong><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">。</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(240, 176, 121);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: 等线; font-size: 14px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(240, 176, 121); text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">一种简单的预测方法是用最近</span>3个时期或6个时期的平均需求作为下一时期的预测值。在下一个期末﹐去掉第1个时期的需求，加上最近这一期的需求，求出新的平均值作为预测。这种预测总是基于某些时期实际需求的平均值。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(240, 176, 121); text-align: center;"><img data-ratio="0.4056603773584906" data-s="300,640" src="https://x.industics.com/public/upload/image/20210305/1614925248972464.png" data-type="png" data-w="1590" style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; height: auto !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">例如，假设用表</span>1中的数据做3个月的移动平均，预测下一年1月的需求时使用10月，11月和12月的需求数据，结果是:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">（</span>63+91&nbsp;+84<span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">）</span>÷3=79</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">假设</span>1月份的需求是90而不是79，2月的预测计算如下:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">（</span>91+84+90）÷3=88</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">例题</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">过去</span>3个月的需求是120、135和114单位，用3个月的移动平均计算第4个月的预测。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">答案</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">第</span>4个月的预测=（120+135+114）÷3=123</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br style="padding: 0px;"/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">假如第</span>4个月的实际需求是129，计算第5个月的预测。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">第</span>5个月的预测=<span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">（</span>135+114+129）÷3=126</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br style="padding: 0px;"/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">在之前的讨论中，</span><span style="padding: 0px;">1月份的预测是79，2月份的预测是88。预测值上升，反映了</span>1<span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">月份的数值较大并舍弃了较小的</span>10<span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">月份的数值。如果使用较长时期，如</span>6个月，预测值变化就不会很快。移动平均中的月份越少，最近信息赋予的权重越大，预测反映趋势越快。不过，预测总是落后于趋势。例如，考虑如下过去5个时间段的历史需求:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(240, 176, 121); text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.40390625" data-s="300,640" src="https://x.industics.com/public/upload/image/20210305/1614925248302335.png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; height: auto !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">我们看到需求有增长的趋势。如果用</span>5个月的移动平均，第6个月的预测就是(1000+2000+3000+4000+5000) ÷5=3000。看起来并不准确，因为预测落后于实际需求很大。不过，如果用3个月的移动平均，预测就是(3000+4000 +5000)÷3=4000。结果仍不精确，但准确很多。问题在于移动平均总是落后于趋势，移动平均中包含的期数越多，落后越大。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">另外，如果没有趋势，但由于随机变化导致实际需求波动很大，基于几期的移动平均反映的就是波动而不是预测平均需求。考虑以下历史需求</span>:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; color: rgb(240, 176, 121); text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.40390625" data-s="300,640" src="https://x.industics.com/public/upload/image/20210305/1614925249122846.png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; height: auto !important;"/></p></section><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">需求没有趋势，是随机的。如果用</span>5个月的移动平均，下一个月的预测3000，这反映了所有历史需求。如果仅用2个月的平均值，那么第3个月、第4个月、第5个月和第6个月的预测就是:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">第</span>3个月预测值=(2000+5000)÷2=3500</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">第</span>4个月预测值=(5000+3000)÷2= 4000</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">第</span>5个月预测值=(3000+1000)÷2=2000</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">第</span>6个月预测值=(1000+4000)÷2=2500</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">使用</span>2个月的移动平均对最近的需求反映很快，因此很不稳定。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br style="padding: 0px;"/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">移动平均预测最适合于预测需求稳定、没有什么趋势和季节性的产品。移动平均也可用于过滤随机波动。常识告诉我们：高需求期之后通常紧随低需求期，这是由于一般情况下，总的市场需求是恒定的。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">应用移动平均法的一个缺点是要保留所预测的每一种货物过去几期的数据，这需要大量的计算机存储空间或记录工作，而且计算麻烦。另外一种常用的预测方法叫指数平滑法，不需要那么多数据，而且计算简便，能够得到和移动平均法相同的结果。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">最后今天的结尾</span>Tonii老师还是抛出一个小问题，希望大家可以根据今天的学习内容进行思考，并欢迎留言与Tonii老师进行深入交流。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">每日一问：移动平均预测法有哪些优点和缺点？</span></strong><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px;"></span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">今天我们就讲到这里，希望大家在企业运营中精益求精，我们下次再见！～</span></p></section></section></section><p></p><p></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; line-height: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; 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