<section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 10px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 5px 0px 20px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; min-width: 10%; vertical-align: top; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; min-width: 10%; vertical-align: top; border-width: 2px; border-radius: 0px; 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text-align: justify; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 18px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0.544px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">200『</strong>预测原则』</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); text-align: justify; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; 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padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; width: 677px; vertical-align: top; border-color: rgb(255, 211, 171) rgb(255, 202, 0) rgb(255, 202, 0); border-width: 1px; border-radius: 0px; border-style: none solid solid; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="margin: 20px 0px 13px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(240, 176, 121); line-height: 1.8; letter-spacing: 1.8px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">各位朋友大家好，欢迎来到</span>Tonii老师精益讲堂，接下来Tonii老师将带领大家进入，每天5分钟，精益伴你行系列课程。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 76px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">今天我们要学习的是</span><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">预测原则</span></strong><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">。</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: 等线; font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">预测有</span>4个主要特征，或称原则，理解它们可以更有效地<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">进行预测。这些特征很简单，从某种意义上说都是常识。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">1.<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">预测通常会出错</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">。预测试图窥探未知的将来，除非运气非常好，否则总会在某种程度上出错。错误不可避免，应有预先准备。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">2.<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">预测都应包含误差估计</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">。既然认为预测肯定会出错，那么真正的问题就变成了</span>“误差多大”。预测应该包括误差估计，通常表示为预测值的百分比(正的或负的)，或表示为最大值和最小值之间的极差(range)。误差估计可以通过研究平均需求<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">上的需求变化大小，用统计方法求得。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">3．<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">对产品组或产品族的预测更准确</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">。即便产品组的特征很稳定，但产品组中单个产品的表现则是随机的，。例如，班里单个学生的分数比全班平均分更难准确预测，因为高分和低分可以互相抵消。这意味着对大批产品的预测要比对其中单个产品的预测更精确。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">对生产计划而言，产品组或产品族建立在加工过程和使用设备相似性的基础上。例如，把织袜作为一个产品组进行需求预测的公司，可能将男士织袜作为一个产品组，将女士织袜作为另一个产品组进行预测，因为市场不同。然而，男女短袜可能会在相同的机器上生产，而长袜是在另外的机器上生产。对于生产计划来说，应该对男女短袜和男女长袜分别做出预测。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">4.时间越近，预测越准确<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">。近期的不确定性要小于远期。多数人对预测下周要做什么比预测一年之内要做什么更有信心。就像有人说的那样，预期明天与今天差不多。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">同样道理，企业预测近期的需求要比预测一段时间之后的需求容易。这对那些长提前期的产品尤其重要，特别是需求不断变化的长提前期产品。任何缩短提前期的措施都能提高预测准确度。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;">数据收集和准备</strong></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">预测通常建立在历史数据之上，而这些数据通过判断或统计方法进行处理。因此，预测的好坏和使用数据的优劣完全相关。为得到可靠数据，以下</span>3条数据收集原则很重要。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">1.<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">以与预测需要的同样术语记录数据</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">。问题在于确定预测的目的和对什么进行预测。这一点牵扯到</span>3个方面:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">(1)如果目的是预测生产需求<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">，需要的是基于需求的数据而不是出货数据。出货表明什么时候发运，它并不需要表明客户需要。因此出货数据并不能真实反映需求。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">(2)预测周期<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">，周、月或季，应该和计划期一致。如果计划期以周为单位，预测就应该使用相同的时间间隔。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">(3)预测项目应该和生产控制的项目一致。例如某种产品的供应有多种选择，则产品需求和各个选择都应进行预测。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;"><br/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">2.<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">记录与数据相方的情况</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">。需求受个别事件的影响，这些事件也应该与需求数据一并记录下来。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;"><br/></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">3.<span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">分别记录不同顾客群的需求</span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">。很多企业通过不同的分销渠道配送产品，每一个渠道都有其自身的需求特征。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">最后今天的结尾</span>Tonii老师还是抛出一个小问题，希望大家可以根据今天的学习内容进行思考，并欢迎留言与Tonii老师进行深入交流。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><strong style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">每日一问：简述预测的四个特征。</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; background-image: initial; background-position: initial; background-size: initial; background-repeat: initial; background-attachment: initial; background-origin: initial; background-clip: initial;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">今天我们就讲到这里，希望大家在企业运营中精益求精，我们下次再见！</span></p></section></section></section></section><p></p><p></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; line-height: 2; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">想听Tonii老师的课程？</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">想和慧工云小学妹有更多互动？</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">就添加慧工云小学妹微信吧！</span></p></section><p></p><p></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 10px 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; vertical-align: middle; display: inline-block; line-height: 0; width: 101.547px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><img data-ratio="1" data-type="gif" data-w="300" width="100%" src="https://x.industics.com/public/upload/image/20210305/1614925438159277.gif" style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(238, 237, 235); border-width: 1px; border-style: solid; border-color: rgb(238, 237, 235); background-size: 22px; background-position: center center; background-repeat: no-repeat; vertical-align: middle; height: auto !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important; width: 101px !important;"/></section></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 14px; text-align: center; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">让慧工云小学妹为您带来更多咨讯</span></p></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px 0px 10px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="margin: 0px; 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