<section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 10px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0px 5px 0px 20px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; min-width: 10%; vertical-align: top; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; min-width: 10%; vertical-align: top; border-width: 2px; border-radius: 0px; border-style: dashed; border-color: rgb(29, 29, 29) rgb(29, 29, 29) rgb(182, 182, 182) rgb(182, 182, 182); 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max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><strong style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; letter-spacing: 0.544px; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">203『指数平滑</strong>预测』</strong></span></p></section></section></section></section></section></section></section></section><p></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); text-align: justify; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0px; 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max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0px 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(240, 176, 121); line-height: 1.8; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">各位朋友大家好，欢迎来到</span>Tonii老师精益讲堂，接下来Tonii老师将带领大家进入，每天5分钟，精益伴你行系列课程。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 76px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">今天我们要学习的是</span><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">指数平滑预测</span></strong><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">。</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: 等线; font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">除了移动平均预测，另一种常用的预测方法就是指数平滑预测，它不需要那么多数据，而且计算简便，能够得到和移动平均相同的结果。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">当使用指数平滑法时，预测可以建立在原先的预测和新的数据之上。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.40546875" data-s="300,640" src="https://x.industics.com/public/upload/image/20210305/1614925156622666.png" data-type="png" data-w="1280" style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; height: auto !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">考虑上表中的数据，假设用最近</span>6个月的需求平均值(80单位)预测下一年1月份的需求。如果1月底的实际需求是90单位，必须舍弃7月份的需求并取用1月份的需求进行新的预测。然而，如果采用原先的预测(80单位)和1月份实际需求的平均值，2月份的需求预测就是85单位。这个公式赋予最近月份和原先的预测(先前所有月份)相同的权重，如果这样不合适，可以赋予最近实际需求较小权重而给予原先的预测较大权重，或许只赋予10%的权重给最近月份的需求，而把90%的权重给先前的历史数据更好。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px;">在这个例子中，2月份的预测=0.1 X90 +0.9 ×80=81</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">注意这次的预测并不像先前计算时把原先的预测和最近的实际需求赋予相同的权重，所以预测值上升并不很多。指数平滑法的一个优点是可以给新数据赋予任意希望的权重。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">赋予最近实际需求的权重叫做</span><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">平滑常数</span>(smoothing constant)，用希腊字母α表示，通常用0到0.3<span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">之间的小数表示。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">通常，计算新预测的公式是</span>:</span><span style="padding: 0px; text-align: center; letter-spacing: 2px;">新的预测=α×最近的需求＋(1-α)×以前的预测</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">例题</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">5月份原来的预测是220，实际需求是190。α是0.15，计算6月份的预测值。如果6月份的需求是218，预测7月份的需求。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">答案</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">6月份的预测=0.15×190+(1-0.15)×220=215.5</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">7月份的预测=0.15×218+0.85×215.5=215.9</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">指数平滑法为定期更新产品预测提供了一个一般方法，对需求稳定的产品来说效果很好。一般说来，对于短期预测，指数平滑能提供比较满意的效果。而当需求量很小或者断断续续时则效果不佳。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">虽然，当存在一定的趋势时，预测会落后于实际需求，但是指数平滑法仍能够发现趋势。下图是指数平滑预测落后于实际需求的例子，且存在向上的趋势。值得注意的是：</span>α值越大<span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">，则预测离实际需求越近。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.72109375" data-s="300,640" src="https://x.industics.com/public/upload/image/20210305/1614925156750147.jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1280" style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; height: auto !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">如果存在趋势，或许可以使用一个稍微复杂的公式，叫做二次指数平滑法。这种方法使用相同的原则，但是注意到了每个连续值沿趋势线的上升或下降。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">问题在于如何选择</span>“最好的”α值。如果使用较小的α值<span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">，如</span>0.1，原先的预测权重很大，就不能像预期的那样快速反映变化趋势。如果使用较大的α<span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">值，如</span>0.4，预测能明显反映出需求变化，但有大的随机波动时会不稳定。获得最佳α值的一个好方法是应用计算机仿真，采用特定产品过去的实际需求，使用不同的α值进行预测，观察哪一个最适合历史需求曲线。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">最后今天的结尾</span>Tonii老师还是抛出一个小问题，希望大家可以根据今天的学习内容进行思考，并欢迎留言与Tonii老师进行深入交流。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">每日一问：指数平滑的优点显而易见，那么相对移动平均预测而言指数平滑预测的缺点在何处？</span></strong></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; letter-spacing: 2px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">今天我们就讲到这里，希望大家在企业运营中精益求精，我们下次再见！</span></p></section></section></section></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; 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height: auto !important; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; visibility: visible !important; width: 101px !important;"/></section></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 14px; text-align: center; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; min-height: 1em; overflow-wrap: break-word !important; text-align: center;"><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; background-color: rgb(255, 202, 0); color: rgb(0, 0, 0); overflow-wrap: break-word !important;">让慧工云小学妹为您带来更多咨讯</span></p></section><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; 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