<section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 10px 0px; padding: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; letter-spacing: 0.544px; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); text-align: center; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0px 5px 0px 20px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; min-width: 10%; vertical-align: top; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; display: inline-block; min-width: 10%; vertical-align: top; border-width: 2px; border-radius: 0px; border-style: dashed; border-color: rgb(29, 29, 29) rgb(29, 29, 29) rgb(182, 182, 182) rgb(182, 182, 182); 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max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><section style="padding: 0px 10px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; color: rgb(240, 176, 121); line-height: 1.8; overflow-wrap: break-word !important;"><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">各位朋友大家好，欢迎来到</span>Tonii老师精益讲堂，接下来Tonii老师将带领大家进入，每天5分钟，精益伴你行系列课程。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 76px;"><span style="padding: 0px; letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">今天我们要学习的是</span><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">季节性</span></strong><strong style="padding: 0px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">。</span></strong></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: 等线; font-size: 14px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">许多产品都有季节性或周期性需求特征，如滑雪板、割草机，泳装和圣诞树彩灯。还有些不明显的例子，这些产品的需求每天、每周或每月都不同，如一天的电力使用或一周的食品采购。电力使用高峰期是下午</span>4点到7点，而超市往往在周末或者节假日前最忙。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">衡量产品季节变化程度的一个有效指标是</span><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">季节指数</span>(seasonal index)。季节指数是估计一个季节内产品需求高于或低于平均需求的程度。例如泳衣需求平均每月100件，但在7月份平均是175件，而9月份却是35件。7月份需求的季节指数是1.75，9月份则是0.35。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">季节指数的计算公式如下</span>:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; text-align: center;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">季节指数</span>=单期平均需求÷所有时期平均需求</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">这里的</span>“期”可以是天、周、月或季度<span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">，取决于需求的季节性这一基础。所有时期的平均需求是抵消掉季节性的一个值，叫做非季节性需求</span>(deseasonalized demand)。上面的公式也可以写为:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px; text-align: center;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;;">非季节性需求</span>=单期平均需求÷季节指数</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">例题</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">季度性需求的某季节性产品过去</span>3年的需求如图1所示<span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">。产品未出现趋势，但存在明显的季节性。平均每季度需求是</span>100单位。图1<span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;;">也给出了实际季节性需求和平均季度需求，图中的平均需求是所有时期的历史平均需求。记住预测平均需求，而不是季节性需求。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.20662460567823343" data-s="300,640" src="https://x.industics.com/public/upload/image/20210305/1614925070551097.jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1268" style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; height: auto !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.4760031471282455" data-s="300,640" src="https://x.industics.com/public/upload/image/20210305/1614925070518596.jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="1271" style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; height: auto !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: center; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">图</span>1&nbsp;<span style="padding: 0px;">季节性销售历史记录</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">答案</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">季节指数计算如下：</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">季节指数</span>&nbsp;=128÷100=1.28<span style="padding: 0px;">（第一季度）</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=102÷100=1.02<span style="padding: 0px;">（第二季度）</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=75÷100=0.75<span style="padding: 0px;">（第三季度）</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;=95÷10=0.95（第四季度）</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">季节指数合计</span>=4.00</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">注意季节指数的总和等于期数，这是检查计算结果是否正确的一个好方法。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">季节性预测</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">计算季节指数的公式也可以用来预测季节性需求。如果公司预测得到了所有期的平均需求，季节指数可以用来计算季节性预测，变换公式得</span>:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">季节性需求</span>=季节指数×平均需求</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">非季节性需求</span>=实际季节性需求÷季节指数</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">例题</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">在上例中，公司预测下一年的年需求为</span>420单位，计算每一季度的销售预测。</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">答案</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">预期每季需求</span>=季节性指数×平均每季需求</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">预期平均每季需求</span>=420÷4=105（单位）</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">预期第</span>1季度需求=1.28×105=134.4<span style="padding: 0px;">（单位）</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">预期第</span>2季度需求=1.02×105=107.1<span style="padding: 0px;">（单位）</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">预期第</span>3季度需求=0.75×105=78.75<span style="padding: 0px;">（单位）</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">预期第</span>4季度需求=0.95×105=99.75<span style="padding: 0px;">（单位）</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">总预测需求</span>=420单位</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">非季节性需求</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">预测不考虑随机变化。预测的结果是平均需求，季节性需求通过季节指数由平均需求计算得来。图</span>2<span style="padding: 0px;">所示为实际需求和预测平均需求。预测平均需求也叫非季节性需求。历史数据属于实际季节性需求，在用于计算平均需求预测前必须对其加以非季节化。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: center;"><img class="rich_pages js_insertlocalimg" data-ratio="0.6896551724137931" data-s="300,640" src="https://x.industics.com/public/upload/image/20210305/1614925070659712.jpeg" data-type="jpeg" data-w="754" style="padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; height: auto !important;"/></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: center; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">图</span>2&nbsp;<span style="padding: 0px;">季节需求</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">而且，如果对比不同时期的销售，除非使用季节化的数据，否则，这种比较是没有意义的。例如，销售网球拍的公司发现夏季的需求量通常最大，然而有些人打室内网球，因此冬天月份网球拍也有需求。如果</span>1月份的需求是5200单位，6月份是24000单位，如何将1月份的需求和6月份的相比来判断哪个是更好的需求月份?季节性存在使得对比实际需求没有意义，进行对比必须<span style="padding: 0px;">使用非季节化的数据。</span></span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">计算非季节性需求的公式从季节性公式得来，如下</span>:</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-align: center; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Bold&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;"><span style="padding: 0px;">非季节性需求</span>=实际季节性需求÷季节指数</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="padding: 0px; font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px;">&nbsp;</span></p><p style="margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; padding: 0px; clear: both; text-indent: 43px;"><span style="font-family: &quot;思源黑体 CN Regular&quot;; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); letter-spacing: 2px; padding: 0px;">今天我们就讲到这里，希望大家在企业运营中精益求精，我们下次再见！</span></p></section></section></section></section><p></p><p></p><section powered-by="xiumi.us" style="white-space: normal; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; max-width: 100%; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, &quot;Helvetica Neue&quot;, &quot;PingFang SC&quot;, &quot;Hiragino Sans GB&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei UI&quot;, &quot;Microsoft YaHei&quot;, Arial, sans-serif; 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